Surrogate Country Power Rankings
When India was dropped from the China surrogate country list in June of 2011, the field for surrogate countries was opened up. India was regularly used for China cases as the surrogate country through 2011. For Vietnam, the other major NME country, India remains on the list of economically comparable countries, but increasingly in the recent past has been bypassed in favor of other countries, such as Bangladesh and Indonesia. The following is a list of surrogate countries used in investigation, review and new shipper finals that were completed in 2013 (not including cases that went AFA or had no shipments).
Final Surrogate Country Power Rankings for 2013
1. Thailand (10)
· The state of play for surrogate country sources for finals that were completed in 2013 shows that Thailand is the new “go to” surrogate for China cases.
· 10 out of 24 China finals used Thailand as the primary surrogate.
· Many of the cases involved metal based products such as tapered roller bearings, steel nails, copper pipe & tube, steel threaded rod, hand trucks, and diamond sawblades.
· A pair of kitchen product cases (stainless steel sinks and kitchen appliance shelving & racks) also used Thailand.
· Finally, two food products also contributed to Thailand’s top power ranking: shrimp and xanthan gum.
· Financials for companies not listed in the stock market are publicly available in Thailand as they are in India, which along with a diverse manufacturing base has catapulted Thailand to the top of the list.
2. Indonesia (7)
· Indonesia finished 2013 in second place, serving as the primary surrogate 4 times for China and 3 times for Vietnam (all finals).
· Seafood products such as crawfish tail meat (from China), frozen fish fillets, and shrimp (both from Vietnam) also used Indonesia.
· Plastic and rubber goods made up the remaining cases using Indonesia: polyester staple fiber, off-the-road tires, and PET film.
3. Philippines (5)
· The Philippines was used in 5 finals completed in 2013. All of these cases involved China, which moves Philippines higher than Indonesia for China cases only.
· Consumer products such as hangers and cased pencils used Philippines as the primary surrogate.
· Activated carbon and chlorinated isocyanurates are chemical products which used the Philippines.
· Philippines was the primary surrogate country for front seating service valves used in air conditioning.
· Non-stock market listed company financials are publicly available in the Philippines.
4. Ukraine (3)
· Ukraine was used in 3 China cases in 2013.
· Two of the cases involved industrial products: graphite electrodes and silica bricks.
· One agricultural product, fresh garlic, also used the Ukraine as primary surrogate.
5. Bulgaria (1) (NEW ENTRY)
· Bulgaria has only been used in a single case – the hardwood plywood investigation.
· Given that this case went negative at the ITC final, it remains to be seen if Bulgaria can work its way up the chart.
6. India (1)
· India clings onto the chart as it was used in a diamond sawblades from China review.
· This period of this review, however, covered 2009-2010 so thias may be the last hurrah for India.
· India does remain on the surrogate country selection list for Vietnam cases, but has not yet been chosen as the primary surrogate for a Vietnam case.
New Lists for 2014
As 2014 begins, the U.S. Department of Commerce has published its new list of surrogate countries in several China antidumping cases (see one below), based on the 2012 World Bank GNI data released in September 2012. Two new countries – Bulgaria and Ecuador – were placed on the list, while some countries that appeared on previous lists such as Philippines, Peru, and Costa Rica – were left off.
The power rankings for 2013 above show that Commerce has never used Peru or Costa Rica as primary surrogate countries in the last year. In fact, CapTrade predicted that Costa Rica would fall off the list.
The elimination of the Philippines is much more puzzling. As shown above, the Philippines was a popular choice in China cases in 2013. It will be interesting to see if Philippines pops up in the list for reviews in those cases. If not, will they go off list with the Philippines or look to new surrogate countries?
Bulgaria has been officially added to the list so may be able to enhance its “new entry” status and establish itself as a surrogate country in 2014.
It is not known if surrogate value information or the all-important public financial statements are any more available in newly elevated Ecuador compared to the countries that dropped off. Further, it is not clear if Ecuador or Bulgaria are any better candidates for surrogates than some other countries that fall within the list’s range of per capita GNI.