FTA Impact Assessments
With the Doha Round stuck in neutral, many countries are considering bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). Capital Trade has been asked by governments, companies, and industry associations to examine the potential effects on trade flows, GDP, welfare, employment, and industry output of various FTAs involving countries in North America, South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Oceania. Economic assessments have utilized the GTAP model and database to analyze effects on broad industry categories.
When clients are also concerned with effects on narrower product groupings, Capital Trade has used the USITC’s COMPAS model and the SMART model, part of the World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution. These partial equilibrium models allow for more targeted analysis of individual products and narrower product groupings.
- Compared the GDP gains across potential FTAs;
- Examined potential trade effects of an FTA on automotive “transplants” in the United States;
- And compared welfare, GDP, and industry-specific gains among various ASEAN countries in their proposed FTAs with the EU.
Most recently, Capital Trade prepared a study examining the trade and domestic industry effects of potential duty reductions on athletic footwear in the context of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership.